A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
