Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
